The type of solution to any conflict is far less important than the conditions required to sustain it.
Inevitably, whenever “the Middle East conflict” flares up, we hear diplomats and journalists declaring their continued support for the “two-state solution”. This has become an international Orthodoxy that most observers take for granted.
Discussions of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians inevitably revolve around detached, theoretical conceptions of a “solution” to the conflict. The attitude of Western technocrats, UN representatives and various intellectuals relates to the conflict almost as if it were an engineering problem – if only we could implement certain steps, we could fix the problem. The reality may be more comparable to a chronic disease, perhaps a genetically inherited one, for which a cure has not or cannot be found, and which must be treated on an ongoing basis.
At the end of the day, if the majority of the population is happy with the reality on the ground and can live with it, it doesn’t really matter what arrangement they come to. Whether the “solution” is based on one or two states is ultimately a distraction from the core issues of the conflict, which revolve around questions of justice, security, self-determination and, above all, national identity.
If it is indeed possible for the two peoples to live in peace in the region, the specific political formula of coexistence will be more of a technical detail than a solution in and of itself. Ultimately, the Jewish Israeli population must be willing to relinquish security control of strategically and culturally important territory, and to trust their Palestinian neighbours in some capacity to help influence their fate in the land. On the other hand, the Palestinian Arab population would have to accept the legitimacy of a Jewish national presence on the land and at the very least recognise Jewish peoplehood and indigeneity.
From my perspective, a prerequisite of any solution would be the ability of a Jewish minority to live in Palestinian state. At this point in time, it is doubtful whether a Palestinian regime would tolerate a Jewish presence within its territory, let alone grant citizenship to those Jews under its jurisdiction. It is even more doubtful that Jews would feel safe enough to remain in areas granted to a Palestinian state – surely, they would fear an imminent massacre if not legal persecution and intimidation.
From a purely moral, rational stance, the ability of Jews to constitute a minority in a Palestinian Arab state should at the least reflect the ability of Arabs to form a minority in a Jewish state – there is no serious discussion either of Israel expelling its Arab population or of a mass Arab Israeli exodus for fear of persecution – whatever the complaints of individuals regarding the problems of integrating Arabs into Israeli society.
In the context of a true peace between two nation states, there should be no problem with allowing trade and tourism between the states, or even having some sort of Schengen arrangement granting freedom of movement to the citizens of both states. If this cannot be achieved in the form of two independent nation states, based on mutual recognition of the collective rights of the other within defined territorial entities, it certainly will not be possible in a forced binational state – even if that state is based on principals of liberal democracy and equality.
The One-State Utopia
A binational state would, at the very least, require the abandonment of national narratives and self-determination for both peoples. It would be unstable politically, unless religion and culture were somehow magically eradicated overnight. There would be issues regarding the desired content in educational curricula, the practice of national holidays and equal access to services in both languages.
These issues are problematic enough as it is within the context of a culturally unified state, but the shared political and cultural language, along with a sense of shared destiny, help to bridge the divides in opinions and strategy that afflict functional democratic societies. Even in a relatively prosperous and peaceful nation such as Belgium, the split national identity between Flemings and Walloons has brought little more than instability and dysfunction. If both sides were forced to relinquish nationalism, each side would have its proverbial half of Solomon’s baby, unable to function as whole.
In essence, a one-state solution (that doesn’t constitute one side decisively ruling over the other) is a no-state solution. It is a utopia that would amount to a vacuum of power, with no government able to legitimately govern more than half the population. The likely result would be the quick Lebanonisation of Israel-Palestine and the emergence of both Jewish and Arab militias, which are likely to represent the most extreme and violent streams of each society.
The state would not only collapse, but it would likely be replaced by a “civil war” or national struggle no different from the war of 1948, but likely with deadlier consequences. Those who can (on both sides) will flee, leaving the poorer, less educated and less economically and culturally productive elements of society to fester in a chequerboard of ethnic hatred and humanitarian crisis.
The most positive outcome in such a scenario would be the re-establishment of separate entities for Israelis and Palestinians, only with further territorial adjustments and ethnic cleansing. At the other end of the spectrum, the result could be the decisive victory of one side over the other – total ethnic cleansing either of Jews or of Arabs from the entire territory. Any question of continued coexistence as a binational state recognising the rights of both peoples would be off the table – permanently.
Palestinian Demands – The Bottom Line
The sad reality of this land, which is claimed in its entirety by both sides, is that there cannot be an end to the conflict over the rights to the territory and the character of the state. If the Jews of Israel were to relinquish all claims east of the Green Line, uproot every last settler and military installation, and hand the keys over to the Palestinian Authority, depending on a hostile population to secure the border and manage issues of strategic depth, it would not be enough for the Palestinians.
The Palestinian moderate camp cannot accept anything less than at least a symbolic recognition by Israel of the Palestinian’s “Right of Return” to lands occupied (but not necessarily owned) by Arabs before 1948. It would mean a moral victory for Palestinians, with Israel acknowledging itself as the primary aggressor and a foreign invader. The reason the Palestinians cannot give up this demand is because this is essentially the only thing that makes one “Palestinian” – before the creation of Israel, the Arab population of Palestine was a fact, but its identification as a distinct Palestinian nation was not. The desire to “return” to the land is what differentiates a Palestinian from a Lebanese or a Syrian, and it is at the crux of what has legitimised the Palestinian struggle against Israel.
Therefore, negation of Zionism, of the narrative that Jews are an indigenous people to the land, that they still constitute a “people” and that they have a right to sovereignty at the expense of Arab dominion over formerly Arab-populated territory – these are the essential components of what makes one “Palestinian” rather than merely an Arab from Palestine. The very identity of the Palestinian was created as a response to the creation of the new Jew of modern Israel, and this response was a necessity to maintain the pride and moral standing of the area’s Arab society, and to boost the Arab claim to the territory that became Israel.
From the Palestinian perspective, across the political spectrum, the right of the Palestinian people to the territory of what is now Israel is inalienable. No Palestinian leader has the legitimacy to renounce the “Right of Return”, and as long as there exists an Arab Palestinian presence in the land, as well as a hope, however faint, that Israel may someday be defeated and the land restored to Arab-Muslim rule, the ideological pressures will demand “resistance” to the “Zionist entity” and a continuation of the refugee narrative.
The Palestinians’ determination is great, as is their ability to absorb heavy blows and demonstrate resilience in the face of suffering. From their point of view, the Jews might give up before they do, or else will be overcome by the sheer numbers of the Arab and Muslim world. Their conviction that they are the righteous victims and the Israelis the illegitimate oppressors is far more solid than the relatively introspective and internally-critical perspective of Israeli Jews – there are several Israeli Jewish publications that serve as more effective tools of Palestinian propaganda than any pro-Israel news source in the world or even in Israel. True, the majority of Jewish Israeli society rejects the “Nakba” narrative and denies that Palestinians were forcibly expelled or have a right to Israeli territory, but there is a widespread understanding that Palestinians have suffered and that they were the “losers” in the war of 1948. Israeli media constantly discusses how Israel should try to improve life for Arabs both within Israel Proper and beyond.
The Limits of Jewish Concessions
The Jewish national identity and need for security preclude the possibility of Israel’s Jews relinquishing their claim to a sovereign state in the ancient Jewish homeland, and the demand for maintaining at the very least a security presence in the highlands and in the Jordan Valley. If the Palestinians cannot give up the “Right of Return”, the Jews cannot give up the “Law of Return” and the special status of Israel as a refuge for Jews, especially given the clearly observable fact that global antisemitism is by no means disappearing.
From a religious perspective, Jews would understand that any territory they give up could quickly become inaccessible to them, and the holy sites in Jerusalem and the West Bank constitute a red line for many Jews. Not only could these sites be off-limits to pilgrimages, but they could also become bases from which Palestinian militias attack Jews within the Green Line.
Even if Jews acknowledge the existence of the Palestinians as a distinct national entity, and as indigenous inhabitants of the Land of Israel, such a recognition cannot come at the expense of Jewish claims to be an (if not the sole) indigenous population and the need for a safe haven for preserving Jewish culture and identity and protecting the lives of Jews. Ultimately, the existence of Israel is more about preserving life than it is about anything else that can be attributed to Zionist ideology, such as the cultural and territorial rebirth of an ancient civilization or the creation of a new Jewish identity.
I believe that the vast majority of Israeli Jews want the Palestinians to have dignified lives and to govern themselves, and would even be willing to grant major concessions in exchange for true peace. However, few Israeli Jews, across the political spectrum, truly believe that the Palestinians as a whole can be trusted not to attempt a Jewish genocide. This is even if we don’t take into account that half the Palestinian population have been governed by the radical Hamas organisation, and it’s unclear what kind of government they’ll form next. The relatively friendlier Mahmoud Abbas has also proven unable to accept multiple peace proposals and the likelihood that a peace treaty would survive his probable assassination remains low.
Why One State?
While some anti-Israel propaganda claims to seek a “democratic” alternative to the Jewish nation-state, in the form of a single state that grants equal rights from the river to the sea, the reality of this proposal tends to favour the restoration of a Palestinian Arab character to the state, with a nominal concession that Jews already living in the area may remain. The “equality” for Jews in this context would mean that they should enjoy equal civil rights, but no national rights.
The dubiousness of this ostensibly liberal agenda is revealed by the common assumption that while the Palestinian refugees (almost none of which can today be categorised as such according to universally accepted definitions) may be granted the “Right of Return”, Jews would have to give up the “Law of Return”, in addition to the declared Jewish character of the state.
The feasibility of a democratic binational or non-national state is further undermined by the evident inability of the Palestinian Arabs to guarantee that such a state remains democratic – not a single Arab country today, with the possible exception of Tunisia, which has yet to be tested, is a liberal democratic country by any stretch. The closest example was Lebanon before the civil war – a flawed and barely functioning confessional democracy as it was – and we all know how that ended.
Before we can discuss a joint democratic state, we will at the very least need to see some form of democracy, even if imperfect, demonstrated by both societies. If the “democracy” of one side means the destruction of the other, perhaps due to popular support for genocide, this is no recipe for cooperation. In almost 70 years of organised political existence, the Palestinians have held elections… once. The result was a plurality voting for a party whose charter is committed to the genocide of Jews, followed by a very undemocratic clash in the Gaza Strip that saw Hamas kill hundreds of PLO officials. To speak of the rule of law or government accountability, let alone the concept of human rights, is detached from the reality of internal Palestinian politics. Israeli democracy struggles as it is with the divisions within Israeli Jewish societies – to suggest that it could somehow be extended to include all the Palestinians seems equally unrealistic.
The Powerless “Peace Process”
The standard approach to negotiating the conflict, which emphasizes Palestinian demands and hopes to achieve Israeli concessions, limited by Israeli demands, frames the conflict as asymmetrical on all levels. Little attention is given to the fact that the Palestinians, although they do not hold any of the material chips in this case, must also make concessions, and relinquish some of their claims.
The Palestinians have always felt emboldened to make maximalist claims that negate the existence of a Jewish state in any form (the Oslo era rapprochement being a complicated issue with the sincerity of Palestinian intentions questionable at best). This is because they have always received the automatic, and often unconditional, support of a large portion of the world – far larger and more unequivocal, at least at the moral level, than any support Israel has ever had. The popularity of the Palestinian cause, even if it has brought little good to the Palestinians themselves, has helped them consolidate their sense of righteousness. Even when Palestinians misbehave, they are more or less excused, for the most part, by the UN and by Western governments, and granted a concession because of their being the weaker party.
However, in the realm of public opinion, the Palestinians are not, nor have ever been, the weaker party. There has never been a truly concerted effort by the Western powers, with the brief exception of Trump, to outright reject the legitimacy of the Palestinian narrative and hold the Palestinian leadership accountable. Past efforts to reach a “solution” have put some pressure on Palestinians to negotiate, but the onus has largely been placed on Israel to grant territorial concessions and economic carrots. The Palestinians have never been presented with the possibility of suffering a punishment that is significantly worse than the status quo, and they have not shown much interest in the economic potential of a peace accord.
Only a decisive and permanent victory in which the entirety of the territory claimed by Israel is effectively wiped clean of its Arab Palestinian population could bring about an end to the kind of conflict we are seeing today – an end to the intermittent attacks by Palestinian militias and “lone wolf” terrorists and to the reality in which Israel maintains a security perimeter around the Palestinian population centres – a policy often condemned as either “illegal occupation” or “apartheid”.
Ironically, if the conflict were between Palestinians and an Arab state like Assad’s Syria, it would likely have been “resolved” long ago. I expect that most countries facing a similar situation, with a hostile population residing within their own territory or in strategic areas that pose a threat to them, would have long ago employed unethical means to either disperse that hostile population or at the very least seek a decisive victory.
Despite the popular accusations levelled against Israel, the targeting of civilians or the prospect of ethnic cleansing have never been on the agenda. The desperation of countries like South Africa, teetering on the brink of failed state status, to take Israel to court for “genocide” do not change this fact. The Palestinians (both Hamas and the PLO) know that Israel is unwilling, even if it were capable, to take such steps. Even after October 7, the Israeli government has repeatedly denied that it seeks to displace Gazans. Despite all the condemnations, Israel is still seen as perhaps too meek for its neighbourhood. Thus, the ability of the state to exert pressure or provide incentives for cooperation is extremely limited.
Final Thoughts
In the absence of a decisive victory, not of one state against another, but of one people against the other, resulting in some form of ethnic cleansing and an irreversible new reality on the ground, it is unlikely that we will see, within our lifetimes if ever, a true solution to the conflict. No permanent status, no end of claims and no peaceful coexistence. As long as we are unwilling to do what we believe to be morally reprehensible, we will be stuck with a conflict that we have to “manage” like a chronic, incurable disease.
The emphasis both for Israel and the international community should be, above all, to promote stability and reduce the impact of violent altercations. Pushing for solutions, whatever they may be, does not promote stability and will not end the violence. If anything, for any final status solution to be effective, it would have to be painful, and likely incredibly violent. For better or worse, we Jews are not too keen on instigating a “final solution”.